Galaxy Digital Believes 20% of Bitcoin’s Hash Rate Could Disappear Following Halving
As the Bitcoin halving approaches and block rewards are cut in half, experts predict that up to 20% of the current hash rate could go offline.
This could leave only the most efficient mining rigs operational, according to a report by Galaxy’s mining analysts on February 14.
Information from Coin Metrics suggests that as of 2023, eight ASIC miner models were responsible for more than 70% of Bitcoin’s hash rate.
Based on Galaxy’s analysis of potential future power costs, it is estimated that between 15-20% of the network’s hash rate could be impacted.
This is due to the sensitivity of the ASIC models’ breakeven points to changes in Bitcoin price and transaction fees, with the models relying on a combination of post-halving economics, where mined block rewards are reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC and transaction fees make up 15% of rewards, and a Bitcoin price of $45,000.
