Bitcoin Will Fall Despite ETF Approval Hopes: Experts Forecast
Specialists at QCP Capital expressed doubt in the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) likelihood to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF by the end of the year.
This could leave the cryptocurrency vulnerable to external factors, potentially leading to a decline in its price.
The current market conditions are heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors and there is a higher possibility of both stock and bond sales, a situation that could result in a “serious catastrophe” with a shift in the risk curve.
QCP Capital also noted that there is uncertainty surrounding whether Bitcoin will behave as a safe-haven asset, like gold, or as a high-risk asset.
If Bitcoin follows the first scenario and gains status as a safe-haven asset, it could mark the beginning of a long-term bull market.
However, analysts remain cautious due to prevailing expectations of a seasonal stock market rally in the fourth quarter, as well as the potential end of the key rate hike cycle.
They advise waiting for similar market dynamics to those seen in October-December 2008, 2018, and 2000, rather than the more optimistic outlook of 2007 and 2017.
